Bankroto tikimybės analizė UAB „Kauno švara“

Kriaučiūnas, Edvinas

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Bankroto tikimybės analizė UAB „Kauno švara“

Kriaučiūnas, Edvinas

URI: http://dspace.kaunokolegija.lt//handle/123456789/910

Data: 2018-06-05

Santrauka:

Reikia nuolat tirti įmonių veiklą, taikyti pažangius analizės metodus, padedančius išvengti jų likvidavimo ar bent jau laiku imtis bankroto veiksmų, siekiant sumažinti neigiamas veiklos pasekmes. Šiame darbe atlikta teorinė ir praktinė bankro tikimybės analizė. Įvairiais modeliais išnagrinėta UAB „Kauno švara“ bankroto tikimybė, atliktas finansinių ataskaitų ir bankroto tikimybės prognozavimas.

Description:

Edvinas Kriaučiūnas. The analysis of bankruptcy probability in UAB „Kauno švara“. Final Thesis. Scientific Advisor - lect. Lina Paliulienė, Accounting and Finance Department of the Faculty of Management and Economics in Kaunas University of Applied Sciences. Description of the thesis.. It is a relevant issue because business activities of the companies need to be continuously monitored through the use of the advanced analytical methods that would help to avoid wind-up or at least to reduce the adverse effects of the bankruptcy by initiating the procedures on time. This thesis provides for theoretical and practical analysis of bankruptcy probability. The bankruptcy probability of UAB „Kauno švara“ was investigated using various models, the examination of financial accounts and a prognosis of bankruptcy probability was performed. The problem of the thesis. Various scholars and financial analysts have researched and summarised bankruptcy forecasting factors, signs and causes, also created and tested different methods of prognosis. However, which of the bankruptcy prediction models, relative indicators should be used by a head of the company who is interested in avoiding bankruptcy-related factors? The aim of the thesis. After analysing the financial condition and performance results of UAB „Kauno švara“, to determine the likelihood of bankruptcy. Methods of the research. Analysis of scientific literature; analysis of the information sources from the company; comparative analysis; analysis of relative indicators; graphic representation; Excel spreadsheets; bankruptcy diagnosis models: E. Altman, G. Springatė, R. Taffler and H. Tisshaw, S. Grigaravičius, S. Stoškus, D. Beržinskienė, R. Virbickaitė; forecasting methods: Proportional to Sales Volume; Achievable Growth Simulation; Extrapolation. The structure of the thesis. The Theoretical Part discusses the concept and causes of bankruptcy, models for bankruptcy diagnosis. The Practical Part provides for the analysis of the dynamics and structure of financial accounts of UAB „Kauno švara“, the analysis of the relative indicators of the company’s performance, bankruptcy probability and prognosis for 2018. The results of the thesis. In conclusion, it can be noted that the risk in the company sometimes increases because of the loss of efficiency, and asset turnover. The key solvency and liquidity indicators of the company show that it is solvent and has no liquidity risk, which indicated it is not at risk of bankruptcy. After performing the forecasting, we can state that the indicators will continue improving and the probability of bankruptcy in the company will remain at the same level. The work consists of 47 pages, 19 tables, 13 figures, 35 references and sources of information, 6 appendices

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